The January 2019 trade conditions survey by SACCI’s depicts a defensive mode with 70% of the respondents negative about trade conditions.the It appears that a notable change occurred in the seasonal patterns of trade conditions due to the Black Friday phenomenon in November. The Trade Activity Index (TAI) was 14 points down in January 2018.
Trade expectations for the next six months remained negative although not as depressed as present conditions with the seasonally adjusted Trade Expectations Index (TEI) down by 4 index points on the December 2018 level. The TEI was 18 points below the January 2018 – partly due to high expectations in January 2018 after the ruling party elected new leadership.
The continued political uncertainty in 2019, high unemployment, load-shedding, land reform, a subdued local and world economy, compliance cost of the regulatory environment, strikes, and wage demands that exceed inflation stifle the trade environment. The sales outlook also deteriorated as the index declined and expected new orders slipped.
The weak trade conditions caused the sales price index to drop – suggesting defensive reaction to improve sales volumes while input prices also fell with the January 2019 index. Sales and input prices are expected to decline respectively over the next six months implying muted inflationary pressures in the trade environment, such as a stronger rand and the fuel prices.
The full report is available at the MCCI office, members interested should contact Laura at secretary@middelburginfo.com.