The participants in the Middelburg economy need to understand the implications of the phase-out coal plan for South Africa and have our plans in place to ensure our economy’s survival.
A few highlights from the Coal Transition report gives a fascinating overview of the future of coal. “South Africa is highly coal and energy intensive and has an economy characterized by extremely high levels of inequality and poverty (with more than half of the population living in poverty. In the long run, sustainable growth moreover, development in South Africa will depend crucially on the transition away from a coal-intensive energy system, and the economy.
Employment in coal mining is projected to decrease by 28,200 workers by 2050, relative to 78,000 workers in 2015. The impact on total coal mining employment is limited by the increased use of coal directly by the industrial sector.
Coal is an important foreign exchange earner, accounting for around 12% of total merchandise exports from South Africa over the period 1993-2015. Loss of coal export revenues is frequently invoked as a risk to the South African economy if it moves away from coal. Total sales values in 2016 were R112bn, of which R50,5bn were export sales.
Nonetheless, Mpumalanga performs poorly on several economic indicators when compared to the rest of the country, reporting higher household poverty levels and a lower human development index than the national average. The concentration of coal-fired stations and upstream mines in the Mpumalanga region pose a threat to socio-economic stability in those regions. Both a least-cost energy pathway for South Africa and a more ambitious scenario that considers climate change result in declining employment in coal mining to 2050.
Evidence from previous transitions, from this study, and from recent coal sector trends suggests that unless supported, the effects on Mpumalanga’s (and to a lesser extent, Limpopo’s) coal workforce are serious. For a full copy of the report contact Mmabatho at secretary@middelburginfo.com