Trade conditions remained stable in October 2019 but still subdued. The seasonally adjusted Trade Activity Index (TAI) that reflects present conditions improved in October from in September 2019. Trade conditions are also expected to remain even over the next six months but subdued. The seasonally adjusted Trade Expectations Index was better than a year ago.
All the components of trade activity were at better levels than in September except for inventories that were one index point lower, and input cost that rose in September 2019. New orders and sales volumes were notably higher with supplier deliveries also improving, Trade activity components are expected to remain steady to positive over the next six months.
The unpredictability of sales and input prices are expected to continue over the next six months. The volume of retail sales, the decline in real house prices and tight merchandise export and import volumes mirrors the current trade environment and an underperforming economy.
Respondents identified government incentives to be biased towards the public sector. They also cited increasing interregional trade in Southern Africa with some respondents expecting a pickup in seasonal trade during the holiday period. Nevertheless, slower global growth is expected to impact on local business, while respondents are calling for stronger implementation of the policy. Crime levels remain a constraining factor in the trade environment.
Members interested in the full Trade Survey should contact Letitia Saayman at 013 243 2253 or secretary@middelburginfo.com